Mortgage Advice Bureau has cut its full-year profit expectations by £5.4m as the anticipated recovery in the housing market failed to materialise and delays to new lead flows hit its Fluent business.

In a trading update to the City this morning the Group said it now expects adjusted profit before tax of approximately £38m for 2026, compared with current market consensus of £43.4m.

MAB said the easing in interest rates and gradual recovery in purchase activity anticipated at the start of the year had not materialised, with the housing and mortgage market becoming more challenging over the summer.

The Group does not expect a meaningful recovery in purchase activity in the short term and said the market remains predominantly refinance-led.

PURCHASE MARKET REMAINS WEAK

The latest Bank of England figures underline the weaker backdrop, with house purchase approvals falling to 56,100 in July from 65,400 a year earlier.

MAB said affordability constraints mean product transfers continue to account for by far the largest share of refinancing activity, although the volume of fixed-rate mortgages maturing during the remainder of 2026 provides a significant opportunity.

The Group nevertheless expects adjusted PBT to grow by approximately 5% compared with 2025.

MAB also marginally upgraded its H1 performance, with adjusted PBT now expected to be approximately £14.8m, compared with the £14.6m indicated in July and £14.5m in H1 2025.

FLUENT HIT BY LEAD DELAYS

A significant part of the downgrade relates to Fluent, where new contractual lead flows expected to drive a step-change in performance have been delayed.

MAB acquired a 75.4% stake in the specialist lending broker for £72.7m in July 2022.

The business provides telephone and digital advice across first charge mortgages, second charges, later life lending and bridging, and has relationships with aggregators and other major national lead sources. MAB viewed the acquisition as an important part of its strategy to increase the volume of customers generated through national lead partners and broaden its reach beyond its traditional network and estate agency channels.

MAB said pilot costs had already been incurred ahead of the associated revenue, leaving Fluent’s expected contribution to 2026 adjusted PBT approximately £5m below previous expectations. The anticipated profit growth has effectively been pushed into 2027.

“Market conditions have softened since our July trading update.”

Peter Brodnicki (main picture, inset), founder and CEO of MAB, said: “While it is disappointing to revise our expectations for 2026, market conditions have softened since our July trading update, reducing our ability to offset the impact of delays to new lead flows into Fluent.

“While these delays have pushed the anticipated profit growth from Fluent into 2027, the updated guidance nevertheless represents Adjusted profit before tax growth of approximately 5% compared with 2025, demonstrating the resilience of our business model against a more challenging market backdrop.”

CENTRALISED SUPPORT

He added: “We are continuing to strengthen the Group’s operating model by centralising administrative and support activities, increasing automation across the customer and adviser journey and integrating our invested businesses more closely.

“As this work progresses, we have greater visibility over the timing and delivery of the resulting operational and commercial synergies. These initiatives are simplifying processes, improving efficiency and supporting increased operating leverage as the Group grows.

“Together with the significant opportunity presented by upcoming fixed-rate mortgage maturities, this progress leaves us well placed to deliver solid profit growth this year and strengthen performance into 2027.”