Brokers brace for possible interest rate rise as borrowers turn cautious

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Nearly six in 10 Primis brokers expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates in the second half of this year.

Surveys conducted at recent Primis events found that 59% of brokers expected an increase in the base rate before the end of the year.

Some 14% considered an increase “very likely”, while 44% thought it “likely”. A further 28% said a rise was unlikely and 13% were unsure.

The prospect of higher borrowing costs comes as households continue to contend with pressure on their finances. Day-to-day living costs, including bills, food and energy, were identified as the greatest concern by 61% of brokers.

Global events were cited by 19%, while 11% pointed to mortgage rates and borrowing costs.

The financial strain appears to be affecting customers’ willingness to borrow. Some 58% of brokers said customers were becoming more cautious or delaying decisions, while 20% reported that customers were increasingly favouring shorter-term fixes.

Remortgaging was named by 67% of respondents as the fastest-growing area of consumer demand, compared with 22% who selected first-time buyers. Later-life lending and equity release followed at 4%, with buy-to-let at 3%.

Brokers broadly expect demand for advice to strengthen over the next six months. Some 63% forecast an increase, against 29% who expected demand to remain unchanged and 9% who anticipated a decline.

Demand for protection was also reported to be increasing by 46% of brokers. Almost a third, at 31%, said it was broadly unchanged, while 24% had observed a decrease.

Michele MacGregor, head of sales at Primis, said: “The overwhelming feeling from Primis brokers at our recent mid-year events is that borrowers are preparing for the possibility that rates could rise again before the end of the year.

“That prospect, combined with a continued strain of higher household bills, is making many borrowers more cautious. But caution does not choke activity, and with an estimated 1.8 million fixed-rate mortgages due to mature this year, large numbers of borrowers will still need to take action in the second half of the year, which should sustain activity for brokers.

“It is therefore unsurprising that brokers expect demand for advice to increase in the coming six months. In a more precarious rate environment, the value of advice becomes greater, not smaller.

“Our priority is as ever to ensure brokers across the Primis network have the lender access, tools and support they need to help customers act with clarity rather than delay through uncertainty.”

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