Stamp duty receipts on homes bought in England and Northern Ireland are projected to reach £11.5 billion in the current tax year, according to new forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

The OBR expects the total to climb to £19.7 billion by 2030–31, underlining the growing tax burden facing homebuyers.

Jonathan Stinton, head of mortgage relations at Coventry Building Society, said: “Keeping stamp duty unchanged will add billions in upfront costs for homebuyers.

“Months of speculation have left buyers and sellers in limbo, and now the only certainty aspiring homeowners have is they will pay more to achieve their ambitions.”

He added: “The budget was an opportunity to modernise a system that has long been criticised for creating barriers to moving.

“While the rumoured proposals weren’t the perfect solution, it’s disappointing that no changes materialised.

“Doing nothing leaves the system outdated and out of step with the challenges homebuyers are facing today.”

RISING TAX PRESSURE

The OBR’s figures set out how fiscal drag and a lack of reform will push more buyers into higher bands in the coming years. Property professionals have long argued that the levy distorts behaviour by discouraging downsizing, limiting mobility for families and suppressing transactions during periods of higher mortgage rates.

Analysts note that higher stamp duty receipts often reflect shifting market conditions rather than policy design. Rising property prices and a gradual recovery in transaction levels are expected to contribute materially to the projected increase.

Despite widespread industry speculation ahead of the Budget, the chancellor opted not to adjust thresholds or introduce any of the reported proposals aimed at easing the burden for first-time buyers or promoting movement within the market.

CALLS FOR MODERNISATION

Many in the industry believe the lack of change will place further pressure on affordability as buyers also contend with elevated mortgage rates. Others warn that an increasing reliance on stamp duty to raise revenue risks entrenching volatility in public finances, given the tax’s sensitivity to housing market cycles.

With receipts expected to grow by more than two thirds over the forecast period, attention is likely to remain fixed on whether future fiscal events revisit the question of reform.