London transaction volumes at all-time low

Published on

Sales transactions in London are at an all-time low, according to the latest Land Registry data analysis by Portico London estate agents.

There were only 55 transactions in the whole of the Westminster borough in February this year, the lowest ever number recorded by Land Registry open data, and 60% lower than in February 2009 immediately after the last market crash.

Portico claims its research shows that there is a clear correlation between general elections and sales transactions, hence the agent forecasting sales volumes to further decline until the general election vote on 8 June.

Historically, low levels of sales transactions in central London have pushed people further out of the capital, but Portico’s data shows falling volumes are now a problem across the whole of London.

There were just 105 sales transactions in the south London borough of Wandsworth this February, compared to 370 the year before, a 72% decrease year on year.Land Registry data shows there were just 82 sales transactions recorded in the east London borough Redbridge in February, compared to 260 the year before, a 68% decrease year on year.

According to the agent’s research, the market should experience a spike of activity post-election however, when certainty in the market is restored. After the last election in 2015, Wandsworth and Westminster experienced a 28% average increase in sales transactions in the three months post-election, and Redbridge saw an ever bigger 34% average jump in activity.

Robert Nichols, managing director of Portico, said: “Currently, transaction volumes, or the number of homes being bought and sold in the capital are at an all-time low. The drop in transactions is in part explained by a big jump in sales in the run-up to April last year, when the change to stamp duty taxes came into effect, followed by an immediate fall. Since then, volumes have dropped to historic lows, and Theresa May’s decision for a snap general election will further subdue the market.

“We are expecting to see some improvement in volume post-election, but at best we expect volume to track at -5% year on year to summer 2016, when volumes failed to recover after the stamp duty changes.

“We cannot say for certain what impact a boost in market activity will have on property prices, but historically there has always been a slight increase. If we look at the last election, house prices rose by 2.4% in Wandsworth in the three months following the vote, 4.6% in Redbridge and 1.7% in Westminster. Similarly, in the election before that in 2010, property prices rose by 1.8% in Wandsworth, 2.5% in Redbridge and a staggering 19% in Westminster in the three months after the election.”

COMMENT ON MORTGAGE SOUP

We want to hear from you!
Leave a comment and get the conversation started.
You need to register to post, so please login or sign up below.

Latest articles

Lloyds ad banned over misleading £19.5bn housing claim

The Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) has ruled that a Lloyds Banking Group advertisement overstated...

Reeves mulls Capital Gains Tax on high-value homes as Treasury seeks £40bn

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is considering ending the capital gains tax (CGT) exemption on high-value...

Landbay unveils new free valuation options and cuts rates on two-year fixes

Buy-to-let lender Landbay has expanded its Summer Special range with the launch of four...

Commuter hotspots offer affordability lifeline as office returns pick up

With more employees heading back into the office commuting is once again shaping homebuying...

Heather Small and Bootleg Beatles to headline first Sort Ball in Manchester

Heather Small and The Bootleg Beatles have been announced as the headline performers for...

Latest publication

Latest opinions

Tuning into later life lending conversations

There are certain conversations in our profession that can genuinely change the course of...

Right of Light risks: a looming shadow over construction projects

Gone are the days when a Right of Light infringement could be swiftly dealt...

Could a move to ‘enhanced advice’ also mean mandatory protection conversations?

The FCA’s recent Mortgage Market Discussion Paper (DP25/2) has got the industry talking about...

Take off the rose-tinted glasses and stop chasing a rate cut

Every six weeks the financial world raises its eyebrows at the prospect of a...

Other news

Lloyds ad banned over misleading £19.5bn housing claim

The Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) has ruled that a Lloyds Banking Group advertisement overstated...

Reeves mulls Capital Gains Tax on high-value homes as Treasury seeks £40bn

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is considering ending the capital gains tax (CGT) exemption on high-value...

Landbay unveils new free valuation options and cuts rates on two-year fixes

Buy-to-let lender Landbay has expanded its Summer Special range with the launch of four...