It’s been an interesting week so far. Sadly, we’ve had to cancel our BDM meetings, because if we’re being honest, everyone in the market knows what’s coming.
The tragedy unfolding in the Middle East is first and foremost about the loss of life and the people caught up in it. But back here at home the economic ramifications are already starting to ripple through markets.
Only last week the market was pricing in the near certainty of a March rate cut. That confidence has now evaporated. Swap rates have surged over the past 48 hours and it’s quickly become all hands to the pump as we try to secure the strongest possible rates for clients before those increases feed through to lenders’ pricing.
INFLATION PRESSURE
Energy markets are clearly driving a lot of this. Rising oil and gas prices will inevitably put upward pressure on inflation. Just days ago it looked as though inflation could fall back towards the 2% target this year.
Now that outlook feels far less certain.
Two days of sharp swap movements – more than 30bps in total – have effectively taken us back to where markets were in October 2025. Moves of that size in such a short space of time inevitably trigger lender repricing. When funding costs rise that quickly, products get pulled and new pricing follows.
That means one thing: applications. Lots of them.
PRODUCT WITHDRAWALS
Whenever lenders begin withdrawing products or signalling repricing, brokers move quickly to secure deals for clients before the changes land. The result is a flood of business hitting lender systems, which inevitably puts pressure on service levels and pushes out application-to-offer times.
In other words, brokers will be working overtime, lenders will be under pressure, and the week ahead has all the makings of a pressure cooker.
That’s what two consecutive days of double-digit swap rises do to this market.
The good news – if there is any – is that this industry is used to dealing with moments like this. Brokers, lenders and support teams across the sector know how to respond when markets move quickly.
“We roll our sleeves up and get on with it.”
So while the next few weeks could mean some long days and late nights for many of us, the focus remains exactly where it should be: doing the best we can for our clients and supporting each other across the market.
To the BDMs we had lined up this week, my sincere apologies for the late cancellations. But right now it really is all hands to the pump in Prolific Towers.
Play nicely, folks. It may be a tough few weeks ahead but, as always, this industry will get through it. Together.
