At the Brightstar Group Specialist Lending Expo today some of the UK’s leading figures in specialist finance warned that a fragile housing market faces renewed uncertainty ahead of November’s budget, with government reforms on renting and stamp duty looming large.
The panel, chaired by Brightstar chief executive Rob Jupp, brought together David Whittaker, CEO of Keystone; Adrian Moloney, group intermediary sales director at One Savings Bank; Stephen Todd, chief commercial officer and co-founder at VAS and Joshua Elash, CEO of MT Finance.
CONFIDENCE AND THE ECONOMY
Moloney said housing activity remained subdued as buyers and lenders wait for clarity from the Chancellor. “I do think there’s a lack of confidence at the moment as people wait for the budget,” he said. “You’re seeing a slight slowdown as people wait to make decisions.”
Meanwhile Elash warned that negative economic forecasts risked becoming self-fulfilling. “If the OBR puts forward overly pessimistic projections, government responds with higher taxes, and that has a very real impact on growth,” he said.
Todd pointed to some nervousness across property markets, with September showing a slowdown in valuation activity. Whittaker, however, was more sceptical about inflation easing, saying: “We fear inflation is locked in at 3–4%. In the real world, private businesses can’t simply cap wage rises the way government suggests.”
RENTERS’ RIGHTS BILL
Debate centred on the incoming Renters’ Rights Bill, expected to be enacted in early 2026.
Whittaker said fears of a mass landlord exodus were misplaced. “It’s not as bad as people think it is… 90% per cent of tenants have a good relationship with their landlord. But there are two or three areas of real concern – notably the abolition of Section 21, the unfinished landlord portal and uncertainty around rent tribunals, which could delay landlords’ ability to raise rents for months.”
Moloney added that the sector had become more professional, with experienced landlords better placed to absorb change.
Todd, himself a landlord, said the reforms could even encourage fairer practices: “I think protecting tenants is a good thing. In commercial property, tenant protections have been in place since 1954.”
Elash downplayed the impact, calling it “much ado about nothing”, arguing that new entrants would adapt to the rules while established landlords would need time to adjust.
STAMP DUTY REFORM
On potential stamp duty reform, Elash said there was an “obvious necessity” to modernise a system that was “overly simplistic and archaic”.
He argued that lowering thresholds could unlock housing stock. Whittaker was more cynical, saying governments had long floated reforms without delivery: “It’s a large upfront lump sum. No government of any colour will willingly give that up.”
DOWN VALUATIONS
On the rising number of down valuations, Todd said expectation management was critical. “Across VAS, our average down valuation rate is 12.5%. Pre-qualifying clients’ expectations, especially in larger or complex transactions, is key.”
He suggested brokers and lenders could do more to engage valuers earlier in the process.
AI AND THE MORTGAGE MARKET
The panel closed with a discussion on artificial intelligence. Elash said AI could streamline administration but warned against over-reliance: “Defaults go through the roof when you replace underwriting with AI. There are too many subtle nuances it can’t detect. Machines should do the ordinary, people the extraordinary.”
Moloney agreed that AI would assist but not replace human oversight, particularly in specialist lending.
Todd said AVMs (automated valuation models) had already reduced demand for residential surveyors but warned that complex property still required human judgment.
Whittaker added that brokers would remain central: “We live and die for our relationships with intermediaries. The numbers fall into place after that. Relationships are everything.”
