In the three months ending January 2013, the quarterly price index for the average domestic property in Scotland fell by 1.0%.
According to the latest Scottish House Price Monitor from Lloyds TSB Scotland, on an annual, underlying basis, Scottish house prices have risen by 0.2%.
The average Scottish house price is now £151,320. Scottish house prices are 89% of their peak at the beginning of 2008.
The latest house price movement has again been generated from a market with a low number of transactions. Compared to the previous quarter, the number of transactions in the Monitor is down by 17% and by 8% when compared to the same quarter one year ago. Prices continue to show volatility as a result.
For the market as a whole, Scottish house purchases during the fourth quarter of 2012 (one month behind the Monitor) showed an increase of 2.7% on the same quarter of the previous year. For the month of December, the number of transactions rose by 5.2% compared to the same month in 2011.
Donald MacRae, chief economist, Lloyds TSB Scotland, said: “The Scottish housing market had adjusted to the recession with a halving of sales and a period of price volatility. There is evidence of a muted pick-up in the number of houses bought and sold in the last quarter of 2012 with average prices now at 89% of their pre-recession peak.
“Consumer confidence turned negative at the beginning of 2011 and remained negative for 21 of the 24 months to the end of 2012. The latest figure for quarter four 2012 shows a return to negative territory. Consumer confidence remains low with the level of retail price inflation exceeding the average increase in earnings squeezing disposable income. The rate of increase in consumer spending remains modest.
“There is some indication of a modest pick-up in housing market activity at the end of last year. Mortgage availability has increased, however prices have remained virtually static while the economy is showing tentative signs of modest growth. The Scottish housing market remains largely muted entering 2013.”
| AREA | UNDERLYING ANNUAL CHANGE | AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE |
| Aberdeen | -1.5% | £209,310 |
| North (excluding Aberdeen) | +0.8% | £158,174 |
| Dundee | -0.6% | £137,720 |
| Central/Fife/Perth/Tayside (excl Dundee) | +1.9% | £127,849 |
| Edinburgh | +11.5% | £211,247 |
| South East (excluding Edinburgh) | +1.2% | £157,319 |
| Glasgow | -0.1% | £140,662 |
| South West (excluding Glasgow) | -5.1% | £131,512 |
Figures shown are for the year January 2012 to January 2013.
The house price index is adjusted for changes in geographic area, property type and season. Information excludes local authority purchases and remortgages. The annual price change is measured by the average of the latest four quarters expressed as a percentage of the preceding four quarters. Data are used when mortgage funds are drawn down.
