Intermediaries expect mortgage business levels to increase in the first quarter of this year compared to the final quarter of 2009, according to Paragon Mortgages’ latest Financial Adviser Confidence Tracker (FACT) Index.

FACT, a panel-based survey of mortgage brokers, found that, on average, advisers expect to do 7.1% more business in the first three months of the year compared with the final quarter of 2009. This is the fourth quarter in a row that brokers have predicted an increase in mortgage business and follows a negative 2008, when the intermediary market, on average, predicted contracting levels of business.

Overall, 58% of brokers expect to see an increase in business in the first three months of the year, with 34% expecting business levels to remain stagnant. Only 8% of respondents expect falling business levels over the same period.

John Heron , Paragon Mortgages’ managing director, said: “Confidence slowly returned to the broker community throughout 2009 and this looks set to continue in 2010. As house prices seem to have turned the corner