Bank rate cuts boost optimism for 2025 despite Budget pause

Rightmove’s real-time data shows some early signs of a post-Bank-Rate-cut uptick in buyer demand, though the home moving portal still expects activity to tail off as usual towards Christmas.

This month’s interest rate cut by the Bank of England may have boosted affordability for some but it’s unlikely to have had an immediate impact.

And it seems last month’s pre-Budget jitters have turned into post-Budget disappointment.

Based on its most recent data it appears new challenges facing the housing market have caused a larger-than-normal seasonal slowdown in pricing.

BIG PICTURE

A red hot air ballon is pictured trying to lift up a house in the UK countryside — UK Housing market: Uplifting

But Rightmove says: “Despite the dampener of the Budget, the big picture of market activity remains strong when compared with last year.

“Since the Budget we have also had a second Bank Rate cut, with Rightmove’s real-time data identifying early signs of a subsequent boost in buyer activity.

“Sustained strong market metrics compared with last year and optimism for lower mortgage rates in 2025 have led to Rightmove forecasting a 4% increase in average new seller asking prices next year.”

CHEWING THE FAT

Tim Bannister Rightmove’s Director of Property Science, says: “There’s been a lot of news to digest for home-movers over the last few weeks and it appears that the market may still be chewing it over.

“The big picture of market activity remains positive when compared to the quieter market at this time last year.

“This sets us up for what we predict will be a stronger 2025 in both prices and number of homes sold, particularly if mortgage rates fall by enough to significantly improve affordability for more of the mass-market.”

MORTGAGE RATES

A combination of sustained positive market activity and the expectation that mortgage rates will lower over the course of next year has led to Rightmove’s 2025 forecast of a 4% increase in average new seller asking prices.

Bannister adds: “The signs are that the market momentum that we’ve been seeing this year will continue into next year, especially if mortgage rates drop to a level that gives greater affordability to some movers who have been waiting in the wings until now.”

TWIST AND TURNS

A computer generated image representing the twisting and turning property market — UK property: Twisting and turning

But he adds: “We still expect some twists and turns next year.

“The speed at which mortgage rates come down next year will be key in determining activity levels for some of the market’s traditionally busiest periods, and sellers will still need to price temptingly enough to secure a buyer while the choice of homes for sale remains as high as it is right now.”

SLOWER GROWTH

Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, says: “More activity is leading to slower growth in asking prices, as buyers are in a stronger position with more stock available for sale.

“We are seeing some further push forward from the market with regard to mortgage rates, helped by the latest bank rate reduction, although further cuts might be slower in coming.

“While the Budget is now done, the market has yet to properly respond but in the short term as lenders continue to provide more affordable mortgages, we should continue to see the uplift in the market.

“As we stand now, if you’re looking to sell, price sensibly and attractively, chances are the buyer will be there.”