UK Finance has published its mortgage market forecast for 2023–2024, anticipating a softening in the mortgage market next year that marks a return to pre-pandemic norms.
It says that overall mortgage lending is expected to fall 15%, a return to pre-pandemic levels.
Lending for house purchase mortgages is predicted to fall 23% due to cost-of-living pressures and rising interest rates placing pressure on affordability. New lending to buy-to-let landlords is predicted to fall 27% in 2023.
Meanwhile, property transactions are predicted to fall by 21% next year.
UK Finance says that refinancing will increase with strong numbers of fixed rate deals due to end in 2023. It also expects cost of living pressures and rising interest rates to reduce demand for house purchases between 2023 – 2024.
The trade body expects the number of property transactions to fall 21% next year (from around 1.2 million in 2022 to 1 million in 2023), with the value of lending to homeowners dropping 23%, and lending to landlords falling 27%. Despite the anticipated fall in activity, the UK has a strong mortgage and housing market which will remain competitive.
At the same time, UK Finance expects to see strong demand for refinancing as around 1.8 million fixed rate mortgage deals are scheduled to end in 2023.
Simon Webb, managing director of capital markets and finance at LiveMore, said: “UK Finance is expecting a downturn in all areas of the mortgage market in 2023 going back to pre-pandemic levels. Considering the cost-of-living crisis, high inflation, higher interest rates and the UK being in recession, a mortgage downturn is to be expected.
“Although house purchase lending is forecast to fall, remortgaging will pick up as an estimated 1.8 million remortgages are due to expire next year. There will be a rise in product transfers as it will be is easier for some borrowers to do this than remortgage.
“If people bought in 2021 during the stamp duty holiday and paid top price for their home, in some cases it may have gone down in value. House price growth is now falling and many commentators are predicting a drop in prices. If borrowers took out two-year fixed rates, they will need to remortgage this year and may find they can’t pass affordability tests and their only option is a product transfer.”
