UK property transaction figures for September suggest that market activity continues to recover, with residential completions edging higher despite political and economic uncertainty in the run-up to the Autumn Budget.
According to the latest HMRC data, the provisional seasonally adjusted number of residential transactions reached 95,980 in September, up 1% on August and 4% higher than the same month last year. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, residential transactions stood at 102,420, down 2% month-on-month but 8% higher than in September 2024.
Non-residential activity was more subdued, with seasonally adjusted transactions at 9,910 – 4% lower than a year earlier and marginally down on August. However, the non-seasonally adjusted total of 10,320 was 12% higher than the previous month, suggesting continued interest in the commercial and mixed-use sectors.
The data shows a steady improvement in volumes since April, when activity dipped following the spring slowdown, indicating that the housing market remains broadly stable in the face of continued speculation over future tax and monetary policy.
Tony Hall, head of business development at Saffron for Intermediaries, said: “Today’s figures underscore the housing market’s continued resilience.
“Despite the summer’s debate around potential stamp duty reforms and the wider political discussion over property taxation, confidence has remained strong in the run-up to next month’s Autumn Budget. With inflation holding steady and speculation mounting over a possible base rate cut, lenders may soon respond with further rate reductions, offering a welcome boost to borrowers.
“As we enter a pivotal period of economic and policy change, the upcoming Budget will play a key role in shaping market momentum and buyer sentiment. In the meantime, as anticipation builds, expert guidance will be more important than ever.
“Brokers will be crucial in helping borrowers navigate uncertainty and make informed, confident decisions in what remains a dynamic and fast-evolving market.”
Melanie Spencer, growth director at Target Group, offered a more cautious interpretation. “At first glance, this might look as though the market is a little more resilient than it has been. I am not sure that’s the case and I am certainly not signing up for any cautious optimism.
“Remember, these stats don’t count the uncertainty generated in the immediate run-up to the Budget. That has put a real brake on the market. Buyers have been nervous about wealth taxes, council tax re-evaluations, even mansion taxes. That’s why the market has stumbled a bit recently.
“In the longer term, I am more optimistic given the easing of mortgage costs from lenders like the Halifax. That will help restore some confidence.”
Joe Pepper, UK chief executive of PEXA, said: “A rise in transactions is a strong indication that affordability is improving and that the market is increasingly meeting the needs of home buyers.
“It is a sign that the measures being introduced to help improve affordability like the changes to the LTI cap are taking effect – a win for both borrowers and the economy.
“This trend will likely continue in next month’s figures too as first-time buyers look to push their transaction over the line before any changes to the inheritance tax thresholds rumoured to be announced in the Budget that could well limit the support they can get from the Bank of Mum and Dad.
“Driving up completions is a good thing, not just for the market itself but for associated industries as people look to move, renovate and decorate their new home. But the fact is that if we keep seeing a rise in demand month on month, all the benefit will be lost because the infrastructure that sits behind the conveyancing process simply won’t cope with the extra pressure.
“Yes we should encourage transactions, yes we should encourage people to buy and measures to improve affordability are certainly a positive. But if we don’t start urgently investing in the modernisation of the technology that supports conveyancers, we will lose out on the benefits a vibrant housing market could bring.”
