The audience at the Financial Services Expo (FSE) Midlands on Thursday heard an industry panel conclude that the UK housing and mortgage market has shown a strong degree of resilience since the result of the EU referendum in June.
John Truswell of CHL Mortgages and Adrian Moloney of One Savings Bank both suggested the market was showing an underlying strength.
Truswell said: “It is difficult to call how the market is reacting post-Brexit vote; indeed, it’s too early to do so. However, September activity was up on the same month last year and we shouldn’t lose sight of the fact the market is very resilient. It appears to be steady as she goes at the moment.”
Moloney agreed: “We have to acknowledge that this market isn’t the same as 2007 and 2008. Lenders are well-funded and want to lend. My feeling is that landlords have got over the stamp duty changes and there is a seismic shift in terms of landlords incorporating.”
Jason Berry of Uninsure, also speaking on the panel, suggested that advisers have plenty of opportunities in uncertain times. He said: “It is difficult to predict how the market will play out but we are in a far better place than we were in 2008/09. Indeed, confusion for consumers has historically led to opportunities for brokers to impart their advice.”
Vicki Jefferies of Personal Touch Financial Services agreed that since September the mortgage market had seen “a stronger flow of applications”. She added “We have seen it pick up since the summer, however we as brokers are not fully exploiting the opportunity that exists in terms of the remortgage market.”
When quizzed on their anticipation for lending levels in 2016, most panel members opted for a figure between £230bn and £240bn of gross mortgage lending, with the anticipation that buy-to-let gross lending would be close to £40bn. Truswell suggested that 2017 lending would see a “tick up” to closer to £250bn.
Moloney also argued that intermediary distribution levels would stay at 75% of all business written for the foreseeable future. The panel did however argue that the market needed more professional advisers.
“Advisers have major advantages over lenders in terms of the advice provision and the choice of products,” said Jefferies. “However we need more advisers.”
Moloney agreed: “We need to continue to bring in new people to the industry but it is difficult.”
