As we edge closer to the autumn Budget, the housing market finds itself in a familiar state of anticipation and uncertainty.
Inflation remains stubbornly high, unemployment has risen and mortgage rates have started to climb again after months of decline.
Against this backdrop, the Government’s ambition to deliver 1.5 million new homes and reform property taxation is facing mounting scepticism from across the industry.
While fiscal measures may dominate the headlines, the underlying question remains the same: will any of it make housing more affordable, more accessible, or more efficient to buy and sell? The evidence so far suggests we are still some way from meaningful reform.
STAMP DUTY
Much of the pre-Budget speculation has centred on property tax reform, in particular whether Rachel Reeves will use stamp duty as the lever to stimulate activity.
Removing or reforming stamp duty might appear politically attractive but it’s far from straightforward.
If the goal is to help first-time buyers, the rumoured changes are unlikely to achieve it.
Reducing or removing stamp duty for certain purchases could instead give an advantage to second- and third-time buyers, who are already more active in the market.
In an environment of limited supply, such measures could simply push prices up further rather than improve affordability at the bottom of the ladder.
And even if the Government opts to reduce stamp duty receipts, the Treasury will still need to make up the deficit elsewhere.
Potentially through council tax reform or adjustments to capital gains.
These are not simple fiscal swaps; they carry wide-ranging implications for property ownership, investor confidence and regional housing markets.
AMBITION VERSUS REALITY
The Government’s pledge to build 1.5 million new homes over the next five years remains a key test of its credibility. Housing Secretary Steve Reed says his job should be “on the line” over the ambitious target but the practical barriers to delivery are immense.
Local planning bottlenecks, the shortage of skilled trades and limited construction capacity all point to the same conclusion – without fundamental reform of how housing is financed, approved and built, the numbers simply don’t add up.
There is also the issue of timing. Even if the right land and planning permissions were secured tomorrow, the homes themselves would not be completed within this Parliament.
The Office for Budget Responsibility expects housebuilding to pick up by the end of the decade but still below the level needed to hit the Government’s target.
A successful housing strategy will depend on co-ordination across developers, lenders, policymakers and technology providers.
The challenge is not only about funding and materials but about efficiency, reducing the time, friction and uncertainty that slows the process from planning through to completion.
REFORM ON THE TABLE
The home buying and selling reforms announced on 6 October offer one potential route forward. The consultation outlines a vision for digitisation, greater transparency and standardised data sharing across the housing chain – all steps in the right direction.
Yet these reforms can only deliver results if the entire industry commits to adopting them. Digitisation and automation are only powerful when they’re joined up.
Each part of the property ecosystem, from conveyancers and estate agents to lenders and technology platforms, needs to be working from the same digital framework.
This is the “now or never” moment for housing reform. The consultation provides a blueprint for progress but it will mean very little if the sector continues to operate in silos.
CONSEQUENCES OF UNCERTAINTY
In the meantime, the market continues to operate under strain. High living costs, stubborn inflation and an uncertain interest-rate outlook are holding back confidence.
Many prospective movers are delaying decisions until after the Budget, while those already on the ladder are looking to improve rather than move.
For lenders and servicers, this means remortgaging and product transfers will continue to dominate activity.
There may also be a lift in second-charge lending as homeowners release equity for renovations or debt consolidation instead of upsizing.
These trends underscore the adaptability of the mortgage market but also the lack of forward momentum that real housing reform is meant to unlock.
CONSULTATION INTO COMMITTMENT
The next few months will determine whether this Government can translate ambition into delivery.
The Budget offers an opportunity to set a clear direction, to show that housing policy will be based on long-term outcomes rather than short-term headlines.
The sector is ready to play its part. Technology providers, lenders, builders and conveyancers have all shown that collaboration and innovation can transform processes when there is alignment and support from government. What’s needed now is focus, consistency and follow-through.
If the Budget and subsequent reforms can deliver that (with joined-up action on planning, digitalisation and funding) we may finally begin to see the foundations of a more stable, fair and functional housing market.
But if uncertainty prevails, the 1.5 million homes target risks becoming another political promise that fades long before the first brick is laid.
