The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) has estimated there was £17 billion of gross mortgage lending in November, 4% lower than October’s figure of £17.6 billion but 30% higher than the £13 billion lent in November last year.
CML chief economist Bob Pannell said: “Gross lending for 2013 looks set to reach £170 billion – higher than the £156 billion we originally forecast, but still a far cry from the £363 billion experienced at the height of the lending boom in 2007.
“New rules hardwire in a more risk-averse lending environment for the future and so, while we expect lending to rise in line with better economic conditions, the next two years are unlikely to see lending levels getting very far above £200 billion a year.”
Jonathan Harris, director of mortgage broker Anderson Harris, said: ‘With mortgage lending up 30% compared with November last year, the market continues in recovery mode yet is still a long way off its peak. The year will finish off far stronger than predicted at its start, with lending volumes expected to rise into next year and 2015. Help to Buy will make it easier for first-time buyers to get a mortgage and lenders are set to continue to offer competitive low mortgage rates to entice borrowers.
“However, we are highly unlikely to return to the boom times seen in 2007 because lenders are far more cautious than they were back then. Underwriting is tighter and borrowers are having to jump through many more hoops before they can secure funding. With the Mortgage Market Review finally being introduced in April, the lending environment is set to become even stricter, although many of the changes have already been implemented.
“Borrowers must also bear in mind what will happen when interest rates rise. With unemployment falling far faster than predicted, the spectre of an interest rate rise sooner rather than later may have spooked those worried about how they will cope when this happens. While we don’t expect interest rates to rise in the short term, it is vital to plan ahead and secure a longer-term fixed-rate mortgage if you are worried about what will happen when they do.”
