Borrowers moved early as rate cut expectations built, Twenty7tec data shows

Mortgage borrowers acted ahead of December’s Bank of England base rate cut, with demand peaking days before the decision as confidence and risk appetite returned.

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Mortgage search activity reached its highest level of the month on 9 December, nine days before the Bank of England reduced the base rate to 3.75%, according to new analysis from Twenty7tec.

The platform recorded 69,462 mortgage searches on that day, compared with 54,847 searches on the day of the decision itself, 18 December. Despite the lower volume on the decision day, activity was still 12.7% higher than on the same day last year.

The pattern suggests borrowers responded to sustained media speculation around an imminent rate cut, choosing to act before confirmation rather than wait for certainty.

Owner-occupiers drove much of the activity. Standard residential searches on 18 December rose 15.1% year on year to 41,803, while buy-to-let searches were up 7.1% compared with December last year.

RISK APPETITE

Alongside the move to act early, the data also points to a shift in borrower risk appetite on the day of the decision.

Fixed rates remained the most popular option overall, accounting for 50.8% of searches across December to date. However, their share dipped to 49.9% on 18 December. Over the same period, tracker mortgages increased from 8.6% of month-to-date searches to 9.1% on the day, a relative rise of more than 6%.

Other rate types that tend to benefit sooner from further base rate reductions, including discount, variable and SONIA-linked products, also increased their share on the day. Taken together, the figures suggest a growing minority of borrowers are prepared to remain closer to future rate movements rather than lock in current pricing.

The data indicates the December rate cut did not trigger a last-minute rush. Instead, borrowers appear to have made their decisions earlier, with the eventual announcement coinciding with a greater willingness to take on rate risk.

Nakita Moss, head of product at Twenty7tec, said: “This is a familiar pattern we see around base rate decisions. Borrowers tend to move early as expectations build, activity eases slightly on the day itself, and there is usually a noticeable uptick on the Monday that follows as people pick conversations back up.

“With this decision falling so close to Christmas, that post-decision bounce may not fully materialise until January.

“For advisers, that means December activity should not be read as a slowdown in demand. Many borrowers have already done the groundwork, and those conversations are likely to reappear quickly once the new year begins.

“Advisers who stay proactive, follow up early in January, and are ready to talk through both fixed and tracker options will be best placed to convert that pent-up demand.”

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