Mortgage brokers are being urged to reassess their regional strategies as new figures reveal the North West has overtaken London as the leading region for off-plan flat sales in England and Wales – signalling a rebalancing of market momentum away from the capital.

In 2024, 63% of new-build flats in the North West were sold off-plan – the highest proportion of any region and the first time since 2007 that London has lost its top spot.

The figures, released by Hamptons and based on Land Registry data, highlight a broader divergence in buyer sentiment and investor confidence.

Salford led the off-plan market with an extraordinary 80% of new flats sold before completion – more than any other local authority in the country.

HOUSE OF BAMBOO

Liverpool followed closely at 75%, shining a spotlight on the strength of demand in northern urban centres.

By contrast, the overall national share of new homes sold off-plan dropped to 31% in 2024 – its lowest point since 2012 and well below the 49% peak in 2016.

Among flats specifically, the share sold in advance of completion has fallen from 73% in 2016 to 50% last year, reflecting investor caution and regional disparities in price growth.

BIG IMPLICATIONS

For brokers, these regional shifts have clear implications for pipeline predictability, client financing strategies and the structuring of off-plan lending.

While investor-driven sales remain subdued nationally, the resilience of the off-plan sector in the North West presents both opportunity and risk, particularly in managing exchange-to-completion timelines and developer exposure.

TODAY’S PRICES

David Fell, lead analyst at Hamptons, said: “Off-plan sales have held up in Northern England which has seen the bulk of house price growth since 2016.

“Investors from across the country, who are a key source of demand for off-plan sales, have continued to buy in these areas to lock in today’s prices for developments which often won’t be finished for years.

“The expectation that prices will be higher tomorrow remains one of the biggest drivers of off-plan sales for both investors and owner-occupiers.”

HOUSEBUILDER AGONY

But he added: “Nationally, fewer new homes finding a buyer before they’re built has hit housebuilders hard.

“It is unlikely that the level of off-plan sales being agreed is sufficient for the government to get close to its 300,000 homes target, given that housebuilders rely on this forward funding to progress on site.

“While bulk deals with institutional investors have helped, they haven’t replaced demand from smaller landlords.

“Last November’s rise in the stamp duty surcharge on second homes from 3% to 5% hit many off-plan investor purchases which completed last year but agreed and exchanged in 2023 or even 2022.

“The higher stamp duty surcharge has kept a cap on the number of investor purchases being agreed today, which will almost certainly mean fewer homes being built tomorrow.”