HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) has published its property transaction figures for November 2024.
Its provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in November is 92,640, 13% higher than November 2023 and 8% lower than October 2024.
Its non-seasonally adjusted estimate is 104,440, 19% up year-on-year and 6% lower than the previous month.
Meanwhile, HMRC’s provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK non-residential transactions is 9,430, 5% lower than November 2023 and 33% down on October’s figure.
Its non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK non-residential transactions in November 2024 is 9,750, 5% down year-on-year and 35% lower than October 2024.
STAMP DUTY CONCERNS
Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus, said: “At first glance these month-on-month figures could cause some alarm, bearing in mind the significant decrease in transaction levels across all properties – residential and non-residential – seasonally adjusted or not.
“However, concerns around changes to capital gains tax and stamp duty ahead of the Autumn Budget are likely to have driven a higher level of property transactions in October than might otherwise have been expected.
“We can be encouraged at the year-on-year uplift in residential property sales and I expect this trend will continue, at least among first-time buyers who are taking advantage of the higher stamp duty bracket until April.”
GROWING CONFIDENCE
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, added: “A quite significant increase in transaction numbers compared with this time last year shows how reduced interest rates have encouraged buyers and sellers to be active.
“Although we are still some way off the highs of previous years, the growing confidence in the market is promising.
“The full impact of the Budget has yet to be factored in, and therefore, a true indication of where we are at would be around the spring, once the stamp duty holiday comes to an end.
“Let’s hope a further cut in interest rates comes before then, helping the market stay productive and confident.”
RATE CUTS
Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, said: “If the Bank of England decides to cut the rate in February, it will be a further shot in the arm for the market.
“Rates cuts are on the card for 2025, but how many is still up for debate. While some economists are expecting at least four rate cuts, the financial markets are currently pricing in just two. Interest rate cuts should have a knock-on effect on mortgage rates, improving affordability and stimulating market activity.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, added: “As HMRC records not just mortgaged but cash transactions too, these figures provide a much better indicator of market health than more volatile house prices. However, the length of time required to conclude a sale shows activity responded quite significantly to the Chancellor’s October Budget.
“Looking forward, the economic and political headwinds which have become more apparent since then mean we expect to see a softening in transaction numbers over coming months, particularly as first-time buyers find it increasingly difficult to take advantage of fast-disappearing stamp duty concessions.”
