The Nationwide Building Society has reported that the annual rate of house price growth was little changed in February at 4.5%, only slightly higher than the 4.3% recorded in January.
House prices increased by 0.6% over the month, after taking account of seasonal factors.
The average price of a home is now £205,846.
Robert Gardner, the Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “Recent data suggests that the UK economy has continued to perform relatively strongly. The economy accelerated slightly in Q4, expanding by a healthy 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, and the unemployment rate remained stable at an 11-year low of 4.8%.
“The outlook is uncertain, but we, along with most other forecasters, expect the UK economy to slow through 2017 as heightened uncertainty weighs on business investment and hiring. Consumer spending, a key engine of growth in recent quarters, is also likely to be impacted by rising inflation in the months ahead as a result of the weaker pound.
“Nevertheless, in our view a small rise in house prices of around 2% is more likely than a decline over the course of 2017, since low borrowing costs and the dearth of homes on the market will continue to support prices.
“Cash buyers are a more important driver of housing market dynamics than they were a decade ago. Though the data1 only extends back to 2005, it suggests that the share of cash transactions increased significantly from around 20% in 2005/06 to around 35% in 2008 and has remained fairly constant since then.
“The sharp increase in the share of cash purchases in 2007 and 2008 was a function of mortgage transactions declining sharply, rather than the amount of cash transactions increasing. This reflects the impact of adverse labour market conditions and the tightening of credit conditions during the financial crisis, which limited the number of people able to buy with a mortgage, while fewer such constraints would have applied to cash purchasers.”
“The UK market has come out of the blocks slow but steady for 2017 and has continued to see upward price growth, shaking off January’s lowest rate of increase in 14 months,” added CEO of eMoov.co.uk, Russell Quirk.
“This was almost certainly seasonal and as spring approaches UK buyers seem to be emerging from hibernation, albeit tentatively.
“Despite the doom and gloom predictions we should start to see an increase in market activity over the coming months which should further strengthen this upward price trend.
“It will be interesting to see where we stand after this month’s budget announcement. With an overall air of hesitation in the market, it is likely that many savvy buyers will be holding out to see what the Chancellor has in store, whereas the previous bulletproof nature of the market may have seen them proceed with a purchase regardless.
“It is likely that Mr Osbourne [sic] will loosen his stranglehold the top end market where stamp duty is concerned, which could breathe new life into the market to an extent, particularly in London. The severity of the property market storm in 2017 could well hinge on next week’s announcements so it will be interesting to see where we stand this time next month.”
The annual rate of growth has ticked up a couple of basis points to 4.5%, the economy improved in the final quarter of 2016 and unemployment is at 4.8% which must be near the level of ‘Full Employment’. All this six to eight months after the referendum.
No convincing arguments are being put forward for the prediction of a fall, in the rate of growth, of house prices to 2%. The only argument being that the UK economy is expected to slow during 2017.
I’m not quite sure who’s comment it is but as they still think Mr Osbourne is still the Chancellor of the Exchequer how much weight should we put on this ‘prediction’? Mr Osbourne predicted the UK economy would crash or fall of a cliff the day after the referendum if we had the temerity to vote ‘Leave’.
Many things can still go wrong but lets not talk ourselves and markets down so much.
Being a little more upbeat will do wonders for the mood of the country.