Halifax: housing market defies slowdown expectations

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Halifax has reported that average property prices rose by 1.8% in June, the largest monthly rise since early 2007.

This means house prices have now risen every month over the last year, and are up by 6.8% or £18,849 in cash terms so far in 2022, pushing the typical UK house price to another record high of £294,845.

Russell Galley, managing director of Halifax, said: “The supply-demand imbalance continues to be the reason house prices are rising so sharply. Demand is still strong – though activity levels have slowed to be in line with pre-Covid averages – while the stock of available properties for sale remains extremely low.

“Property prices so far appear to have been largely insulated from the cost of living squeeze. This is partly because, right now, the rise in the cost of living is being felt most by people on lower incomes, who are typically less active in buying and selling houses. In contrast, higher earners are likely to be able to use extra funds saved during the pandemic, with latest industry data showing that mortgage lending has increased by the highest amount since last September.

“Of course, the housing market will not remain immune from the challenging economic environment. But for now it continues to demonstrate – as it has done over the last couple of years – the unique combination of factors impacting prices. One of these remains the huge shift in demand towards bigger properties, with average prices for detached houses rising by almost twice the rate of flats over the past year (+13.9% vs +7.6%).

“In time though increased pressure on household budgets from inflation and higher interest rates should weigh more heavily on the housing market, given the impact this has on affordability. Our latest research found that the strong rise in property prices over the last two years, coupled with much slower wage growth, has already pushed the house price to income ratio up to a record level.

“So while it may come later than previously anticipated, a slowing of house price growth should still be expected in the months ahead.”

Sundeep Patel, director of sales at specialist lender, Together, added: “House price increased by 1% in May. But the overall rate seems to be slowing down- even if only slightly. However, activity within the property market continues to prevail despite the cost-of-living crisis and inflationary pressures.

“The property market is expected to slow further this summer as households continue to contend with rising costs and other spending priorities, which will likely stall some property purchases. The Bank of England is expected to increase interest rates come August, creating an even more sluggish market. However, this continued challenging economic outlook could lead to a housing market correction in the coming months.”

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