Halifax: house prices have plateaued

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Halifax has reported that UK house prices increased on a monthly basis in April by just 0.1%, which is less than £200 in cash terms.

The bank said that annual growth rose to +1.1%, from +0.4% in March, but added that this can be attributed to the base effect of weaker price growth around this time last year.

Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax, said: “The average property now costs £288,949, compared to £287,244 at the start of the year. While there is always much scrutiny of monthly price changes – and a degree of volatility is to be expected given current market conditions – the reality is that average house prices have largely plateaued in the early part of 2024.

“This reflects a housing market finding its feet in an era of higher interest rates. While borrowing costs remain more expensive than a few years ago, homebuyers are gaining confidence from a period of relative stability. Activity and demand is improving, evidenced by greater numbers of mortgage applications so far this year, while at an industry level mortgage approvals have reached their highest point in 18 months.

“Our recent research also found that buyers are adjusting their expectations, with first-time buyers in particular compensating for higher borrowing costs by targeting smaller properties. We see this reflected in property prices for the first few months of this year, with the value of flats rising most sharply, closing the ‘growth gap’ on bigger properties that’s existed for most of the last four years.

“However, we can’t overlook the fact that affordability constraints are still a significant challenge, for both new buyers and those rolling off fixed-term deals. Mortgage rates have edged up again in recent weeks, primarily as a result of expectations around future Bank of England base rate changes, with markets now pricing in a slower pace of cuts.

“If, as is still expected, downward moves in Bank Rate come into play later this year, fixed mortgage rates should fall. Combined with the resilience displayed by the housing market over recent months, we now expect property prices to rise modestly over the course of 2024.”

Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, added: “Borrowers have benefited from cheaper mortgage rates since the start of the year, which has boosted market activity and enquiries.

“Since then, higher funding costs have led to higher mortgage rates over the past couple of weeks and there is likely to be some volatility in pricing ahead. Borrowers would be wise to secure a rate they like the look of to protect themselves from further price fluctuations in the short term.

“Once the Bank of England is confident inflationary pressures have eased and starts cutting interest rates, this will provide a welcome boost for the market and should help increase confidence and activity.”

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